Bond News Today — July 24, 2026

The current geopolitical landscape continues to influence market sentiment, as evidenced by the Pentagon's revised official Iran war death toll, which has omitted four individuals killed this month. This development comes amidst a broader sense of unease in the financial markets, where the recent calm is showing signs of cracking. Investors are being cautioned to prepare for potential shocks in August, highlighting the growing uncertainty and risk aversion that is starting to permeate the stock market.

The impact of this uncertainty is already being felt in various sectors, with American Airlines' stock experiencing a significant decline due to rising fuel costs, which are further delaying the company's turnaround efforts. Meanwhile, the rising cost of capital for companies is becoming a growing concern, with some investors worrying that increased spending may not yield the expected returns. In a notable development, Oracle has signed a major 10-year software contract with the Pentagon, worth up to $7 billion, which could have implications for the company's financial outlook and the broader technology sector. As investors navigate this complex and increasingly volatile landscape, they will be closely watching for signs of instability and potential opportunities for growth.

Today's signal:
• Pentagon lowers official Iran war death toll, omitting four killed this month (cnbc.com)
• The stock market’s calm is cracking. Here’s how to prepare for an August shock. (marketwatch.com)
• Oracle signs 10-year software contract with Pentagon worth up to $7 billion (cnbc.com)
• The stock market’s calm surface is cracking. Here’s how to prepare for an August shock. (marketwatch.com)
• American Airlines stock tumbles 9% as fuel spike further postpones turnaround (cnbc.com)
• The rising cost of capital for companies today is starting to spook the stock market: ‘The worry is the spending might not pay off’ (marketwatch.com)